So I had earlier predicted a crash upon election day. That prediction was based on continued levels of panic. However, panic can’t really last a very long time. Panic is inherently unsustainable. People get tired of panic after a while. So things calm down, while the underlying source of the panic is not resolved. So it didn’t look like we’d see a huge crash after election day, but maybe things would still fall somewhat. However it appears that yesterday there was a big rally. So while I am still generally bearish for the next 1-2 years, at least, I figured, well, my prediction for a crash will not hold out, the market clearly seems to be glad that the election is happening and there will probably be a bit more rally today.
But that appears not to be the case. Looks like we’re already down below yesterday’s open. Not quite down to below Monday’s close though, and of course nowhere near the end-of-October bottom. So who knows, perhaps my post-election day crash prediction will bear a post-election day drop. Not the 20% crash I was expecting, but something to indicate that my theory may have been correct in kind, if not in magnitude.
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